Wednesday, October 6, 2021

A Crazy Trend

  • Ninth Circuit grills Wynn's views in harassment case. [Bloomberg Law]
  • Kamer Zucker Abbott retained to conduct investigation into NSHE Regents drama. [TNI]
  • Henderson Municipal Judge Douglas Hedger is retiring from the bench. [Press Release
  • The FBI will start investigating threats made against school board members, teachers. [Nevada Current]
  • Nevadans fighting back against catalytic converter thefts. [Fox5Vegas]
  • The median home price in Vegas is $406,500, but the market appears to be stabilizing. [8NewsNow]

23 comments:

  1. The housing market doesnt explode like this and then just "stabilize." Go back and look at LVRJ articles from Late 2006 and early 2007 and you'll see similar analysis. This is crazy talk. There is a 30% correction coming and it's gonna be ugly for a lot of people. For me, I'll be ready to pounce.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So how are you going to be ready to pounce? As we know, all markets are about timing. I know people who were lucky enough to purchase real estate after the crash had started and bottom out. And lucky is the key word here. The best option is to be in a home that you can afford under any circumstances and ride out any "correction."

      Delete
    2. 11:38 AM here. I have cash piled up and almost no debt. That's how I'm ready to pounce. When the correction comes, I am scooping up houses and condos. Markets are about timing and luck, but they are also about not being a moron and buying a house in Las Vegas in 2007 or 2021.

      Delete
    3. The market actually started to soften in early 2006. By summer, prices were falling. And by the end of '06, the freefall was already underway.

      Delete
    4. There may be some correction, 5%-10% downward or so max, but there are many factors that are much different than 06-08 free fall. Plus with inflation, greater demand, high rent, more people in the valley, there will be no 30% drop. Don't forget blackrock and others buying up properties, plus there are no more NINJA mortgages so a different situation fundamentally.

      @ 12:43, If you have all of your money in cash, I think you are missing opportunities, as with inflation, you are losing value on your cash. Much better places to put money to work now, max keep 20% on the sideline, rest should be in stocks, property, even 5% crypto is viewed as becoming acceptable in investment circles. Cash is no longer king.

      Delete
    5. "There may be some correction, 5%-10% downward or so max, but there are many factors that are much different than 06-08 free fall."

      This argument, which I hear so often, just irritates the snot out of me. As if the *only* way the housing market can collapse is a repeat of 2007. Nobody here is arguing that the factors here are the same. People are arguing, wisely, that this kind of abrupt explosion in prices often precedes a dramatic market correction.

      The only argument worse than this is the idea that the Raiders coming to town impacted the housing market. I see endless videos on FB from my realtor friends with the Raiders Stadium in the back ground rah rahing the housing market because of the Raiders. The Raiders employ about 650 people. That's it. The Raiders have had ZERO impact on housing prices.

      Delete
    6. The market rash of 2006-2008 was exacerbated by non-existent underwriting standards and fraud. Those factors don't seem to be in play here. It may go down, but I don't think it will be as catastrophic as before. I bought my place about six months before the bottom last time, so not too worried.

      Delete
    7. Incomes are not supporting the high price tag for a home. Add 7+ year auto loans, inflation, and we're soon at the point of "something's gotta give". I see housing prices being fragile here. Maybe not a full crash, but a correction of sort unless incomes somehow rise or people suddenly become responsible with their debt.

      Delete
    8. We will not have the same wave of foreclosures that we did in 08/09. Nor do we have so many bad doc loans as 08/09. Nor do we have subprime dominating like we did in 08/09. You are not going to see 08/09, so stop looking at 08/09 as a comparison. Housing affordability is one thing, but the people who are in those homes likely will not face foreclosures based upon un-affordability.

      There may issues or a correction, but anyone hoping for a 08/09 repeat for speculation dont understand the fundamentals from that crash.

      Delete
    9. We will not experience the same housing bust as 2008. We have different forces at work. But long term there will be a correction. Housing prices are not affordable for most. Median household income in vegas is 56k. Median house price is over $400k. Not quite there. Growth adjusted for inflation would suggest approx 50% increase in costs since 2003. But we are actually up about 90%. you can see the trend data on the St Louis Fed's website. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS29820Q Interesting.

      Delete
    10. Las Vegas has a history of large down swings in residential real estate. Obviously not the same forces in every downturn, but we are due. Look at the historical records, start with the 60's and work forward. Predicting the timing is like trying to time the stock market, or predicting when the San Andreas fault will slip.

      Delete
    11. I think what's missing here is that people are assuming people living in Vegas are the only people buying houses in Vegas. National and international businesses are buying up houses all over the US as a business model. Just because the people who live here can't afford it doesn't mean they can't hold their value. If large businesses can buy them and rent them out profitably then they'll hold their value. At a minimum I see a small correction and maybe a flatlining for a few years.

      Delete
    12. Not really, no. If the economy goes south with a stock market crash, inflation, etc, then jobs become scarce. No jobs, no reason to stay in Vegas, and fewer renters. Too many scenarios can happen with any and all of them impacting the housing market.

      For whatever reason this seems to be a 15 year cycle. We know the reasons behind the 2006 downfall.

      The early 1990's plunge was due to a poor economy...reference George Bush Sr's "read my lips, no new taxes." It was an economic hangover from the go-go eighties.

      The housing market dive in the mid '70's was largely due to hyper inflation and sky-rocketing interest rates...not to mention the oil crisis if you remember the gasoline shortages and accompanying high prices. Going back much further in time from there, the price of a reasonable sized house was a much smaller portion of one's income where the ups and downs of interest rates and prices were less impactful on a families everyday living.

      Prices all over the country have gone way up real fast of late, not just here in Vegas. Just Zillow a small town anywhere in the US and look at the pricing trends...it's crazy.

      Delete
  2. They're receiving death threats and threats of violence, not just comments that "bother[] a school board member." I'm sure you knew that, though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Take the political bullshit somewhere else.

    ReplyDelete
  4. So...... anyone thing that Governor Sisolak will do a vaccine mandate similar to the City of Los Angeles and San Francisco where, absent proof of a vaccination, one cannot enter bars, restaurants, etc? Presently the restriction is for large gatherings of people (like Raiders games or concerts). Does anyone think he'll tank the gaming revenue by making it mandatory regardless of gathering size?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt it. He wants to be re-elected.

      Delete
    2. I think it is a good idea in theory, but from my recent experience in a city that requires it, enforcement is spotty. Some places examine your card under a flashlight and match it with an ID, others glance at it and wave you through, some (albeit small minority) don't bother at all.

      Delete
    3. Considering Sisolak has zero independent thoughts of his own, looks to CA for his divine wisdom, and NV is a blue state so most voters blindly follow his lead, yes, I predict he will require vaccination proof shortly after CA requires state-wide proof of vaccine status.

      Delete
    4. He has zero authority to order any such thing, and even if the legislature legislates it, at least one judge will grow a pair and stop the madness.

      Anyone know what % of state bench has taken the shots? I heard it's 100% at FedCt.

      Delete
    5. What's the possibility that 'natural immunity' (proven by a positive Covid-19 test in the past) will be elevated to the level of the vaccine? Reinfection rates even for the variants for those who had Covid and survived are much less as a percentage than first time infection rates for those with the vaccine. Is that ever going to be recognized in the U.S. with, as some countries call it, with 'immunological currency'?

      Delete